What It Is: A predictive tool created to measure the expectations of Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) for the upcoming year's economy and market movements.
How It Works: The index is based on responses to five critical questions related to key economic indicators such as the S&P 500 performance, inflation rates, recession probability, market volatility, and potential equity market downturns from over 100 RIAs around the country.
Key Insights from the Index: 3rd Quarter Update
- Overall Sentiment: The overall sentiment has decreased slightly to 53, reflecting continued cautious optimism among RIAs for the next 12 months, though with a more conservative outlook compared to previous quarters.
- Market Performance: The overall sentiment has decreased slightly to 53, reflecting continued cautious optimism among RIAs for the next 12 months, though with a more conservative outlook compared to previous quarters.
- Inflation Expectations: Inflation expectations remain stable, with nearly 90% of RIAs predicting inflation will fall between 2% and 3.9%. This confidence in manageable inflation levels has stayed consistent across quarters.
- Recession Probability: Recession concerns have grown, with nearly 1 in 5 RIAs (17%) believing a recession is almost certain or highly likely. However, 48% still feel optimistic about the economic path forward, seeing a low likelihood of recession.
- Concerns on Volatility: 57% of RIAs now expect higher stock market volatility compared to 2023, up from 47% in the second quarter. Despite this, many RIAs remain confident in their ability to mitigate risks and maintain strategic positioning.
Why It Matters:
- Strategic Planning: Offers an early signal of potential economic shifts, aiding in better strategic planning for RIAs and their clients.
- Advisor and Client Confidence: Reflects a collective stance of cautious optimism, providing reassurance in the face of potential market challenges.
 Download a visual overview of the RIA Economic Outlook Index, which measures Registered Investment Advisors’ (RIAs) economy and market trends expectations. |  Download the RIA Economic Outlook Overview, which provides insights into Registered Investment Advisors’ (RIAs) expectations on key economic factors, including market performance, inflation, and recession risks for the upcoming year. |